What Is Driving Illegal Immigration?

US immigration policies

In my last article, I suggested that the US should stop the inhumane approach it has taken to deal with the problem of illegal immigration and grant amnesty to otherwise law abiding immigrants. Afterall, we clearly need them. I don’t think many Americans would or could endure being a farm worker.

I received a comment that my recommendation would simply encourage more illegal immigration and that Trump’s mean spirited deportation approach would serve as a deterrent. That is likely true.

The comment did spur the question, what are the root causes of illegal immigration anyway? The answer may surprise you,

To explore this question, let’s focus on immigration from Mexico since that is where most illegal immigrants come fron. Many Mexicans would prefer to enter the U.S. legally if they could—but there are several structural, legal, and economic reasons why nonimmigrant work visas are not broadly accessible to them, especially for low-skilled or seasonal labor. Here's a breakdown:

1. Limited Number of Work Visas

• H-2A (agricultural) and H-2B (non-agricultural) visas are the only nonimmigrant work visas widely available to low-skilled Mexican workers.

• H-2B visas are capped at 66,000 per year (divided between winter and summer seasons). This is a tiny number compared to demand.

• H-2A visas (for farm workers) are uncapped, but employers must prove:

  • They couldn’t find U.S. workers.

  • They will provide housing and meet wage rules—making it costly and bureaucratic.

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2. Employer-Driven Process

• Mexicans can’t apply on their own. A U.S. employer must file paperwork, prove a job shortage, and sponsor each worker.

• Many U.S. employers avoid the system because:

  • It’s slow (can take months).

  • It’s expensive (legal and filing fees).

  • They worry about compliance or prefer undocumented labor for cost and control.

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3. No Visa Path for Long-Term Low-Skill Work

• If a Mexican wants to work as a cleaner, roofer, or restaurant worker, there is no standard visa for that—even though the U.S. labor market needs it.

• The H-2B visa doesn’t cover most year-round or urban jobs.

• The H-1B visa (high-skill) is not available to most low-income workers.

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4. Legal Immigration Wait Times Are Decades Long

• If a Mexican applies for a green card through a family member, the wait can be 20+ years, especially for siblings or adult children of U.S. citizens.

• There is no general “line” to apply to work or live in the U.S. legally unless one qualifies for a very specific path (e.g., high-skilled, family-sponsored, lottery).

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5. Push & Pull Factors

• Push factors in Mexico: poverty, violence, corruption, lack of opportunity.

• Pull factors in the U.S.: higher wages, jobs available, family already here.

• When legal options are limited or nonexistent, people take risks.

Mexicans are not getting nonimmigrant work visas in large numbers because:

• The visas are capped, limited in scope, and employer-driven.

• Most U.S. jobs that attract Mexican migrants don’t have a legal visa option.

• The legal immigration system for low-skilled or poor migrants is basically closed.

We need these workers but we make it really hard for them to enter legally. Does that make any sense? What are the actual numbers?

H‑2A (Agricultural Workers)

• In FY 2023, approximately 310,000 H‑2A visas were issued across all countries—a ~58% increase since 2018 Wikipedia+8Federal Register+8Migration Policy Institute+8USCIS+3U.S. Government Accountability Office+3Wikipedia+3.

• Over 90% of those visas went to workers from Mexico, meaning around 279,000 Mexican nationals received H‑2A visas in FY 2023 .

H‑2B (Non‑agricultural Workers)

• In FY 2023, the Department of State issued 131,700 H‑2B visas, with an additional 407 changes of status and 1,053 border crossings, totaling 133,164 H‑2B participants U.S. Government Accountability Office+8USCIS+8Wikipedia+8.

• Mexican nationals made up 64.5% of all H‑2B visas in FY 2023—translating to about 85,500 visas ($=131,704×0.645) USCIS.

Key Takeaway

Mexican nationals received hundreds of thousands of agricultural H‑2A visas and tens of thousands of non‑agricultural H‑2B visas in fiscal year 2023. Despite these numbers, demand still exceeds supply—especially for H‑2B, which is capped and employer-dependent—fuelling a significant portion of undocumented entries.

H‑2A (Agricultural Workers)

• Overall growth (FY 2018–2023): Issued visas rose from ~196,000 to ~310,000—a 58% increase Congress.gov+6U.S. Government Accountability Office+6rsfjournal.org+6.

• Mexico’s share: Mexicans consistently receive over 90% of H‑2A visas each year Wikipedia.

• Historical context: Visas grew from ~134k in FY 2016 to 161k (2017), 196k (2018), and peaked >213k by 2020; this continued rising to ~310k in FY 2023 rsfjournal.org+2Wikipedia+2U.S. Government Accountability Office+2.

Takeaway: Agricultural demand has surged, accompanied by rising visa issuance—nearly doubling in six years—largely benefiting Mexican laborers.

H‑2B (Non‑Agricultural Workers)

• Demand increase (FY 2018–2023): Certified worker numbers jumped from ~147,400 to ~215,200—a 46% increase American Immigration Council.

• Annual visa issuance:

  • ~83,800 in FY 2018

  • ~97,600 in FY 2019

  • Dropped to ~61,900 in FY 2020 (COVID impact)

  • Rebounded to ~95,000 in FY 2021 DOL+15Wikipedia+15U.S. Government Accountability Office+15.

• FY 2023–FY 2024 figures:

  • FY 2023: ~133,200 visas/statuses issued U.S. Government Accountability Office.

  • FY 2024: ~142,063 visas/statuses issued, with 64.8% going to Mexicans, or roughly 92,000 Mexican H‑2B workers USCIS+2USCIS+2USCIS+2.

🔍 Cap & Supplemental Allocation:

• Base cap remains at 66,000 per year; consistent cap reaches in both halves of FY 2025 indicate tight limits Congress.gov+3USCIS+3USCIS+3.

• Supplemental allocations and returning-worker rules help boost numbers (e.g., FY 2024 and FY 2025).🧭 Key Insights

  • Both programs show strong upward trends, especially after COVID‑19 disruptions.

  • H‑2A (agriculture) is nearly uncapped but limited by labor certification processes.

  • H‑2B remains cap-limited, though supplemental and returning-worker rules have raised total issuance above the base cap.

  • Mexican nationals consistently dominate, especially in H‑2A (90 %+) and H‑2B (~65 %).

I really appreciate the comment that spurred this research. Now, I and hopefully you have a better understanding of this issue. To boil it down to its essence:

1. The US needs millions of low skilled workers

2. We don’t offer near enough worker visas for what we need

3. We have an arcane employer driven process that is ignored

4. Immigrants enter illegaly as a result

5. We then villify and dehumanize the very people we encourgaed to enter becuase we have an ineffective immigration system

Clearly the whole thing is broken.